16 February, 2006

New Yorkers Leading Horse Race in Latest Gallup Poll on the 2008 Presidential Race

Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton lead the way in the CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll's newest look at the 2008 presidential election, released today.

On the Democratic side it is no surprise to find Sen. Clinton on top of the list, with 39% of registered Democrats polled picking her as their favored presidential candidate. John Kerry polled second at 15%

But there are a couple of mild surprises when you compare today's numbers to Gallup's results two months ago. Clinton's support dropped four percentage points since December, when she was polling at 43%. Also in the last poll, Kerry and John Edwards were tied for second at 14%. The most surprising note in the poll was the showing by Al Gore. The former VP and Democratic presidential candidate was not listed in the December poll but put up a reasonably solid 13% this time - putting him in third place. The Gallup Web site doesn't make clear whether the December polling question didn't include Gore's name on the list or he didn't poll well enough to show up in the results. Either way his performance in the February poll is noteworthy.

On the GOP side Giuiliani tops the list at 33%, with Arizona's John McCain a close second at 28%. The rest of the field is in the single digits. Giuliani gained 3 percentage points and McCain six since December. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice went from 18% in December to 1% in February, when her name was apparantly not listed in the poll questionnaire. Still, 1% of those polled picked her anyway.

Interesting that in what seemed like a red-state world just a short time ago, two New Yorkers - both liberal on social issues - top the polls.


One name not mentioned at all in the Gallup poll was that of NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The New York Observer's Web site is running a story today saying a top aide is encouraging the mayor to consider a 2008 bid as an independent or even a Democrat. The article Will Mike Run For President as a Sane Perot? makes a decent case that the idea may not be so far-fetched.


One last word from the Gallup folks. Based on results of a separate poll released today it appears the wiretap issue remains a "divider not a uniter." In a Feb 9-12 poll, 47% of those asked said they believe the Bush administration was right to wiretap telephone conversations without getting a court order while 50% say it was wrong to do so. In late January, 46% said the administration was right and 51% wrong.


Well, on to watch my TIVO of today's USA-Sweden curling match. I'm not the jingoistic type but I get all red-white-and-blue when it comes to my country and my curling!!


At 10:06 AM, Anonymous Sam said...

You know, it doesn't really matter if 47%, or 51%, or 95%, of the people polled think it was okay for the Bush administration to wiretap U.S. citizens. It was illegal. Most people you poll would probably say it's perfectly safe to drive 5 to 15 mph above the speed limit, but when the traffic cop gives you a ticket and you try to fight it in court by saying "everyone thinks it's okay," the judge is going to laugh and slap a fine on you. He might also yell at you for wasting the court's time. It's the same with the Bush administration and wiretapping. The 1978 FISA law could not be more clear, and they violated it. It's a law, not a popularity contest.


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