28 September, 2006

Hall Put On DCCC's "Emerging Races" List; Dems' Chances Looking Better In Recent Polls But OnePolitical Analyst Is Not Convinced


John Hall, the Democrat running for Congress against incumbent Rep. Sue Kelly in New York's 19th District, is getting noticed - finally - by the national Democratic Party.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has elevated the race in the 19th to its "emerging races" list, which means the national office now thinks Hall has a chance. Besides a nice writeup on the DCCC's Web site, the inclusion on the list means some national party money might come Hall's way.

"With less than two months to go, the DCCC is excited to give our top candidates the necessary strategic and financial boost they will need to win in November," said Congressman Rahm Emanuel, DCCC chairman on the DCCC Web site.

Meanwhile, on the other end of the state, Emanuel's Republican counterpart got some not-so-good news today. A poll done for WGRZ-TV in Buffalo shows Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds - the man in charge of overseeing all of the Republican congressional campaigns this year - is running ever-so-slightly ahead of his Democratic challenger Jack Davis. In the poll, done by SurveyUSA, Reynolds leads Davis 45% to 43%, with Green Party candidate Christine Murphy polling at 8% in New York's 26th District.

DIAGO POLL SHOWS DEMS GAINING GROUND AGAIN IN CONGRESS RACES

On the national level, the Democrats got some good news from another poll. The Diageo/Hotline poll shows Democratic candidates gaining ground again against the Republicans, after faltering a bit in August. Last month Democrats and Republicans were equally favored by likely voters in congressional races (40% to 40%), but in the September poll voters say they favor the Democrats by 46% to 33% on a so-called "generic" congressional ballot.

NY TIMES REPORT SHOWS RENEWED HOPE FOR DEMS IN SENATE RACES

The news in today's New York Times was equally encouraging for Democrats running for the U.S. Senate. The Times highlighted seven races where the Dems are putting up a stiff fight for seats currently held by Republicans. Democrats must post a gain of six seats on election night to take over control of the Senate.

NOT SO FAST! SAYS ONE POLITICAL ANALYST

Stuart Rothenberg, of the Rothenberg Political Report , issued a warning of sorts to Democrats who may be getting carried away by recent favorable polling reports. A look deeper into the numbers, Rothenberg argues, indicates the surface numbers may not hold up. Rothenberg's report was published in Roll Call today, the subscription-only Capitol Hill newspaper, but Capitol Confidential obtained a copy of the report and posted it earlier today.


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