14 July, 2006

Polls:Zarqawi Bubble Bursts For Bush, Dems Favored In The Fall

The quick burst in President Bush's approval rating following the death of Al-Qaeda In Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi early last month has dissipated, (or disapparated for you Harry Potter fans) according to two recent polls.

The latest Fox News Poll has Bush's approval rating back down to 36%, a drop of five points in the past two weeks.

The poll shows the president lost support among key constituent groups, including Republicans, whites and men

The news is not good for Republicans running for Congress either. (story)

According to the poll, the top three issues facing the country are Iraq (21%), the economy (11%) and health care (10%). What? No flag burning? No gay marriage? On all three of the top issues, those polled by Fox favor the Democrats' stance.

The poll marks the first time the Democrats are seen as having a better policy on Iraq than the GOP.

As far as actual voting goes, 42% of those polled said they would vote for the Democrat running for Congress in their district, while 34% said they would vote for the Republican candidate.

Among those who identified themselves as independent voters, 30% said they prefer the Democrat in their district, while 17% said they would vote for the GOP candidate.

One last bit of important data in the poll. Some 23% of Democrats said they were "very interested" in the fall elections this year, compared with 17% of Republicans, a stat that could tell something about election-day turnout.

The story is similar in an AP-Ipsos poll released today. Bush's approval rating in that poll is also at 36% and three out of four voters are disenchanted with the performance of the Republican-controlled Congress. In this poll, 51% said they wouold vote for a Democrat for Congress compared to 40% who said they would vote for a Republican.

Meanwhile, Cook Political Report has released it's latest chart on House races it considers competitive. There's no change in the two local races that Cook is watching, In New York's 19th District, held by Republican Sue Kelly, Cook still sees the seat as "likely Republican," while in the 20th District, held by Republican John Sweeney, the seat is listed as "leaning Republican."


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