23 August, 2006

Trolling the Polls; WNBC/Marist, Quinnipiac Polls Show More Of The Same; Iowa Poll Puts Giuliani Ahead While Pataki Barely Registers

Three new polls were released today, two dealing with the New York state races this fall and one looking ahead to Iowa in 2008.

Tonight the Marist Polling Institute released a WNBC/Marist poll showing that the frontrunner in the GOP race for Senate is - yet again - someone named undecided.

The poll shows 46% of New York Republicans are undecided in their choice between John Spencer and KT McFarland. Among those who have made up their minds, Spencer has a two-to-one lead. The results are virtually unchanged from a month ago.

Sen. Hillary Clinton is 25 points ahead of Spencer in a general-election poll of voters of all stripes. Clinton leads McFarland by 30 points head-to-head.

In a Democratic primary pairing, Clinton has an 80% to 15% lead over Jonathan Tasini.

The WNBC/Marist poll shows the governor's race equally lopsided.

In a poll of Democratic voters, Eliot Spitzer leads Tom Suoizzi 70% to 17% in the race for the party's nomination.

Among all voters, Spitzer leads Republican John Faso 67% to 23%

The race for attorney general appears to be the only one that is the slightest bit competitive.

Andrew Cuomo is tops in the Democratic primary matchup at 46%. Mark Green is favored by 28% and Sean Patrick Maloney is at 10%. Rockland County resident Charlie King is polling at 1%.

In one-on-one pairings for the general election, Republican Jeanine Pirro trails Cuomo (39% to 54%) and Green (42% to 48%).


The attorney general race looks pretty much the same in a poll earlier today from Quinnipiac University. Cuomo leads Green by 43% to 28% among registered Democrats.

Both Cuomo and Green top Jeanine Pirro by double digits in this poll.

In the governor's race Spitzer is miles ahead of both Suozzi in a primary pairing and Faso in the general election. The interesting thing here is that the people at the Q-Poll bothered to pair Faso and Suozzi in a November faceoff. (It never hurts to ask I guess). Suozzi holds a 40% to 22% lead in the poll.


The Des Moines Register today published a presidential preference poll today, showing Rudy Giuliani leading in state that will weigh in first in the 2008 presidential primary season.

Among Republicans expected to attend the state's caucuses in 2008, Giuliani has 30% support. Some 29% of likely caucus goers were undecided and John McCain has the support of 17%, according to the poll. The poll shows single-digit support for all other Republicans. New York governor George Pataki, who may as well seek work as a scarecrow he's been in the state so often lately, polled at 3%.

There is, however, a bump in the Iowa country road for Giuliani. Seventy percent of those polled identified themselves as "pro-life," and two-thirds of those polled said they would be unlikely to vote for a candidate who's position on abortion differed from theirs. I wonder if Iowans are clear on Rudy's position on the issue?


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