How Wide Open Is New York This November? It Depends Who You Ask

Not long ago New York was seen as fertile ground for the Democrats in their battle to take over the House. In fact up to six seats, by the count of some analysts, were seen as possibilities to flip to the Democrats.

Recent news reports and analysis have dialed that number down significantly, though some national pundits have said the Dems' chances are improving in other states even as they wane a bit here.

So who's right? Who knows! It depends who you ask.

According the the Capitol Hill newspaper The Hill today, Republicans have significantly cut the number of seats they think they will have trouble holding onto. Among the seats moved into the "safe" column, the Hill reports, is New York's 20th District - where incumbent Republican John Sweeney, at one time, was seen as facing a severe test from Democratic newcomer Kirstin Gillibrand.

But, in an asssessment of its chances in New York following the primaries Tuesday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put out an optimistic report report on winnable seats. That report included the 20th District, as well as the 19th - where John Hall will take on incumbent Sue Kelly.

The DCCC also still lists the Gillibrand race on it's Red-to-Blue list, a list advising individual donors nationwide where to put their campaign donations to do the party the most good.

GILLIBRAND-SWEENEY RACE: LATEST INTENRAL POLLS SHOW SWEENEY IN LEAD

Capitol Confidential, the political blog of the Albany Times-Union, today published the latest internal polls on the race for the 20th District. Sweeney's latest poll has him up by 17 points, while Gillibrand's poll has her opponent up by 8. The blog also published a recent poll by the DCCC showing Gillibrand trailing by 12 points

Capitol Confidiential also today reported that Laura Bush will headline a fund raiser for Sweeney on October 4 in Saratoga Springs.