31 October, 2006

Majority Watch Poll:Dems Still Lead In 6 Of 7 Contested New York House Races, Hall's Lead Narrows

A new Majority Watch poll is out one week before the election and it shows the Democrats in 6 of 7 New York congressional races the pollster considers competitive.

The poll shows Democrats ahead in the the following New York congressional
districts: 19, 20, 24, 25, 26 and 29; GOP incumbent Peter King is ahead in the Third District.

The Democrats were ahead in the same races in a Majority Watch poll two weeks ago, but there are some important differences in the numbers in the latest poll.

For instance, Democrat John Hall had a nine point lead in the 19th District race according to Majority Watch's poll two weeks ago, but he now leads incumbent Republican Sue Kelly by just two points. 49% to 47%.

In the 20th District, Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand's lead over Republican incumbent John Sweeney has slipped from 13 points to 11 points.

Meanwhile, Republican Peter King's lead widened to 7 points from just 2 points two weeks ago.


There's a new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll out tonight, and it paints pretty much the same picture as the last poll they put out on Oct. 19, which is not good news for the GOP.

Iraq is named by most of those polled as the main issue in next week's election.

Some 52% of those polled said they would prefer the Democrats take control of Congress, compared with 37% who would like to see the Republicans retain control. That ties the numbers earlier this month, and is a record spread on that question.

In addition, 54% now say removing Saddam Hussein from Iraq was not a good idea, and of those who feel that way, 80% say they will vote for a Democrat in next week's congressional elections.

Brian Williams and Time Russert discussed the poll on tonight's NBC news broadcast. View the conversation here. (you have to sit through a 15-second ad first)


Sen. Hillary Clinton will campaign with Democratic candidate John Hall tomorrow in Hopewell Junction as Hall bids to unseat Sue Kelly in the 19th District.


Take19, the grass roots organization which plainly states its sole purpose for being is to unseat Sue Kelly, has an interesting post on its Web site tonight.

Kelly has tried to make an issue of Hall's investment in a mutual fund that is invested in
an oil industry firm accused of polluting a lake in South Carolina.

Take19 points out that Kelly has been doing some investing of her own that the group thinks is notable.


At 5:21 AM, Blogger MrMacMan said...

The MW polls are freaky.

I never believed that Hall has a 9% lead.

2% sounds a lot more reasonable but it might be even closer then that.

For example the NY-20 poll is completly out of whack with every other polling including dem internal polls.

Meh, maybe history will show that they will be the years best pollster but for now... i don't yet believe.

At 8:12 AM, Blogger Ron Vallo said...

I don't disagree. If you look back on the poll from two weeks ago, which I linked to this latest post, you'll see a link to their Web site, which explains their methodology.

As I said then, I leave it to each reader to discern for themselves how much credibility to place on the poll, since, as far as I know, they don't have much of a track record in politics.


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