19 October, 2006

Siena Poll Shows Sweeney With 14-Point Lead Over Gillibrand

Republican Rep. John Sweeney, the incumbent in New York's 20th Congressional District, has a 14-point lead over Democratic challenger Kirsten Gillibrand according to a Siena College Poll released today.

That's a direct contrast to a Majority Watch poll we told you about earlier today, which showed Gillibrand with a 13-point bulge over Sweeney.

Gillibrand did cut Sweeney's lead since the last Siena poll on this race in August. Sweeney led in that poll by 19 points.

Sweeney leads in every region of the district in the latest poll, which was taken Oct. 16-17.

That was before revelations in the Albany Times-Union yesterday of possible House ethics violations by Sweeney over a trip to the Mariana Islands with a former associate of disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Ben Smith at the The Daily Politics, the political blog of the Daily News, has an interesting post on this race. He says both parties seem to think the race is closer than either of today's two polls would indicate. He then lists a litany of ties between Sweeney and Siena College - and then lets your imagination take you where it will.


Talk about your mixed messages. A new Survey USA poll commissioned by WGRZ-TV in Buffalo shows Republican incumbent Tom Reynolds has regained the lead in New York's 26th District in western New York.

Reynolds has been behind in that race in some recent polls, including the previous poll done by Survey USA two weeks ago.

In the latest poll Reynolds leads Democrat Jack Davis 49% to 46% . Two weeks ago Davis was ahead 50% to 45%.

In the latest poll, Davis's support among independent voters dropped 11 points from the prior poll.

There are some mitigating factors here.

The poll taken two weeks ago was taken at the height of the congressional page scandal, which Reynolds took a hit on for not acting forcefully enough on information he had on former Florida congressman Mark Foley and Foley's entanglements with the pages.

Also, the latest poll was taken Oct. 16 - 18, when part of the district was still without phone service because of the early-season snowstorm that hit the Buffalo area,


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