05 October, 2006

UPDATE: Reynolds Slips Behind In Polls Following Foley News, But Is Scandal To Blame?


Rep. Tom Reynolds, the incumbent Republican from New York's 26th Congressional District and the head of the GOP's congressional campaign committee, has fallen behind in his bid for re-election, at least according to one so-call "flash poll" and an internal poll done by his challenger's campaign.

Reynolds, who is being criticized for not pushing hard enough for action against disgraced former congressman Mark Foley in the so-call "page-gate" scandal, trails his Democratic challenger Jack Davis in a poll done for by Buffalo's WGRZ-TV.

The poll, done by Survey USA, shows Davis ahead of Reynolds 50% to 45%.

In truth, Reynolds' support in this poll has not waned in recent days, despite the scandal. Instead, Davis' has improved. In a Sept. 28 poll by SurveyUSA, Reynolds had the same 45%. Davis was at 43% at the time, so he has gained 7 points in a week.

In the latest poll, there is no candidate listed for the Green Party. In the prior poll, former Green Party candidate Christine Murphy polled at 8%. She has since been disqualified by the state elections board.

So, while some will try to spin this poll as Reynolds being taken down by Foley, it is just as likely that Davis' boost in support comes from former Murphy backers. No way to know for sure.

Meanwhile, the New York State Democratic Party released results of an internal poll done by the Davis campaign showing the Democrat ahead by 8 points 50% to 42%. That poll was done Tuesday and Wednesday. According to the Democratic Party, Reynolds' favorable/unfavorable in the internal poll was 29/39, with his approval rating at 34%.


While we are on the subject of the Foley page scandal (I swore I would NEVER call it page-gate, but I have already done so), the New York State Republican Party put out a list of 10 questions Democrats should be asked as the gnash their teeth over the Foley affair.

While the Dems are right to be outraged, as should we all be, the Republicans make a fair point with their list, which has been blogged by Politics on the Hudson.


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